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[dave carr]

Just my opinions, but here are the main contenders for the 91st Indianapolis 500.

Tony Kanaan
#11 7-11 Andretti Green Dallara Honda

Chances: Serious Contender

What is a good day: Nothing short of victory lane will make TK happy. He may accept a top five finish if the red and white cars look unbeatable. To borrow a poker phrase, TK seems to be “all in” on this year’s Indy 500. Tony’s strained relationship with Andretti Green Racing may get worse if things go badly.

Reasons for Optimism: Tony had the quickest car on Carb Day by a large margin. He’s been the fastest car not in Penske or Ganassi livery all year and has proven he can beat those teams if the conditions are right.

Something is different about TK this year. Sure, that wide smile is still there, but one senses a little harder edge to him. He wants this race—badly. It eluded him last year when he really thought he had it won. His determination is palpable. When the green flag falls, watch the green car go. Go. Go. Go.

Reasons for Concern: Andretti Green found themselves behind the Penske and Ganassi teams when Honda became the sole engine supplier. They haven’t totally caught up to those teams, and one wonders how AGR will handle the number of pit stops they will face in the Indy 500. Will TK’s burning desire to win outweigh his better judgement?


Dan Wheldon
#10 Target Chip Ganassi Racing Dallara

Chances: Serious Contender

What is a good day: Like Kanaan, only a win will make Wheldon happy. Wheldon will tell you that he’s concentrating on winning this race and he’s certainly shown that he can win with dominant performances in the Kansas and Homestead races.

Reasons for Optimism: Dan was quickest on several days in practice leading up to qualifying. They didn’t qualify well (for Target Chip Ganassi), but they don’t seem to be rattled by starting sixth. Team Ganassi has shown in other races they are an efficient team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. The affable Englishman is on a roll. He’s already won twice this year and is at the top of the IndyCar point standings. Wheldon is one of the series’ best drivers and can stretch a lead over the other top drivers in the field.

Reasons for Concern: Did this team peak too early? Great at Kansas and early in practice, may not be remembered if this team struggles on race day. Wheldon is aggressive and may find trouble where he doesn’t need to.

Helio Castroneves
#3 Team Penske Racing Dallara

Chances: Serious Contender
What is a good day: Anything short of posing for another sculpture on the Borg Warner Trophy might be considered a disappointment. Helio can sweep the month. He’s already won the pole and his Penske crew the annual pit stop competition.

Reasons for Optimism: Duh. The effervescent Brazilian already knows his way to victory lane—twice over. Team Penske is a juggernaut and you won’t find a quicker over the wall crew in Motorsports. Despite these advantages the fans love Helio.

Reasons for Concern: He had a great month going this time last year and faded badly in the race. The margin for error isn’t large in a sport where everyone pretty much has the same cars, tires and engines. There are a lot of other guys with the stuff to win.


Sam Hornish Jr
#6 Team Penske Racing Dallara

Chances: Serious Contender

What is a good day: The defending champion would love to repeat, but might not put himself in jeopardy if he doesn’t think a win is in the cards.

Encouraging Signs: Team Penske gears their considerable efforts to winning Indy every year. They won the Pit Stop contest and sat on the pole with team mate Helio Castroneves and Hornish Jr’s car is just as good. Sam knows how to win here, and don’t be too surprised if he does it again.

Reasons for Concern: Hornish has been a tick of the watch slower than Wheldon and Castroneves at times this year. Are his NASCAR efforts a distraction?

Scott Dixon
#9 Target Chip Ganassi Racing Dallara

Chances: Contender

What is a good day: Dixon has never finished in the top five here. Dixon would love to win, but would be happy with beating his team mate and finishing in the top three.

Reasons For Optimism: Great equipment, great team. Has as good a chance to be there at the end as anyone.

Reasons for Concern: The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is not a road course. Dixon can dominate on road courses, but doesn’t match Wheldon’s performance on ovals.

Dario Franchitti
#27 Canadian Club Andretti Green Racing Dallara

Chances: Contender

What is a good day: I’m tempted to say going home to the wife, but Dario is everyone’s favorite second or third pick this year.

Reasons for Optimism: He’s been consistently fast. He sat on the pole for five hours on pole day before being moved aside by the boys from Brazil (Castroneves and Kanaan). He’s steady, if not spectacular and it would be a story fit for a Hollywood movie if he finishes first. If he does win, will wife Ashley Judd be moved to take off that butt-ugly hat (I’m sure it’s very fashionable in Kentucky).

Reasons for Concern: Not the fastest guy, not the fastest team. He always seems to be in contention, but doesn’t win his share of the races. Is he aggressive enough to win the Indy 500?

Michael Andretti
#39 Jim Beam Motorola Andretti Green Racing Dallara

Chances: Contender

What is a good day: Busting the Andretti jinx would be a great day. Michael would love to do that and he has a chance.

Reasons for Optimism: Michael was a factor in last year’s 500 and his quick times during carb day (3rd quick overall) were very encouraging. Michael spent a lot of time on race setups and let his other drivers take the spotlight during the month. He knows this is probably his last Indy 500 and he still has the skill to get the job done. The 1987 and 1997 500’s were won by drivers who weren’t contesting a full season of races. Will 2007 see another Indy-only victor?

Reasons for Concern: While Michael Andretti has led more laps than any non-winner, he’s a part time driver with a crew that was put together for this race. That doesn’t make it impossible, but it doesn’t make it easy either.

Marco Andretti
#26 NYSE Andretti Green Racing Dallara

Chances: Dark Horse

What is a good day: A good day for Marco would be to run with the leaders all day and keep the car competitive.

Reasons for Optimism: 2006 Indy 500 was an awesome display for the youngest Andretti. He shoulda, coulda, mighta won the race, but Sam Hornish Jr. found his way around Marco on the last lap and left the youngster thirsty for his first taste of victory lane milk

Reasons for Concern: Awful performance in the races leading up to Indy. Twice the Andretti Green Racing team has parked the #26 because they were off on the set up and had no idea how to fix it. This month has been quiet for Marco. He isn’t the fastest driver on the team, he may not be the fastest driver named Andretti on the team.

Danica Patrick
#7 Argent Racing Motorola Andretti Green Racing Dallara

Chances: Dark Horse

What is a good day: Lead lap finish

Reasons for Optimism: Danica is at her best on tracks like Indy, especially when traffic gets spread out and she can pass cars one at a time. She can have a great day if her crew can keep her near the front and the track is green when she needs it to be green and yellow when she needs it to be yellow.

Reasons for Concern: Danica isn’t great at restarting back in the pack or in heavy traffic. If she finds herself in that situation, she may struggle. How many teams must have a bad day for her to win?

Tomas Scheckter
#2 Joost Vision Racing Dallara

Chances: Dark Horse

What is a good day: Top ten finish on the lead lap

Reasons for Optimism: Scheckter is fast and the team is improving. The team was a factor last year. He’s led 148 laps here.

Reasons for Concern: The team has never won a race and Scheckter is known to push too hard and get himself in bad situations, often crashing out. He’s only finished one Indy 500 in five tries.

Ryan Briscoe
#12 Norton Luczo Dragon Racing Dallara

Chances: Dark Horse

What is a good day: lead lap finish

Reasons for Optimism: This team is a thinly veiled Penske effort and has the equipment to compete at the front of the pack. Briscoe finished third in last year’s Watkins Glen race driving for Dreyer and Reinbold Racing. Briscoe finished tenth, one lap down in his only Indy 500 start.

Reasons for Concern: The members of the Luczo Dragon Team ran the IROC series. Are they going to be able to compete against others? Briscoe has crashed seven times in his 19 IRL starts and dropped out in two of his four IRL starts last year with handling problems.

[ferrari frau]

Dave:

Thanks for all of your work this month in open wheel racing. I appreciate you taking the time to fill us ignoramuses in on the details of the top drivers. Everything you say makes sense to me.

Looking forward to your trackside reports.

Cheryl